Antonelli already has a first mathematical title chance in Singapore

Kimi Antonelli arrives in Baku with 292 points, 81 ahead of team-mate George Russell and 101 ahead of Lewis Hamilton. Nine rounds remain and 233 points are still available, leaving eight rivals mathematically alive behind him.

The earliest purely mathematical title possibility comes as soon as Singapore, the third event in the Baku–Malaysia–Singapore sequence. But the scenario is extreme: Antonelli would need to win the Azerbaijan and Malaysian Grands Prix, then the Sprint and Grand Prix in Singapore, while Russell scored no points across those events.

The calculation mainly underlines the lead Mercedes has built. Based on a projection using the current median results of the two drivers, a more realistic first title opportunity would come in Mexico.